Regional update : high energy prices spur economy despite growing labor shortages

National income ; Employment ; Construction industry ; Manufacturing industries ; Housing - Prices ; Maquiladora

Oil and gas rises again in a diversified Texas

The oil and gas industry has been a driver of the Texas economy for the past 40 years. Its contribution declined with the oil-led recession of 1986 and appeared to slip further in the 1990s as the high-tech industry boomed. But oil and natural gas prices have risen since 1999, reaching record highs in 2008. This resurgence has boosted energy activity and factored into the recent economic recovery in Texas, affirming the industry’s long-held prominence in the state. ; An econometric model developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas documents the state’s evolving energy fortunes since the late 1990s. It shows that the industry is still contributing positively to Texas output and employment, though in a less-pronounced way than during the prior oil boom 30 years ago.Energy consumption ; Employment ; Prices ; Texas

Coal, natural gas and oil markets after World War II: what's old, what' s new?

Power resources

Energy security: a comparison of protectionist policies

Power resources

Texas economy stalled by recession

Recessions

An overview of science and cents: exploring the economics of biotechnology

This article provides an overview of the conference "Science and Cents: Exploring the Economics of Biotechnology," hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in April 2002. The conference brought together distinguished experts who spoke about economic and scientific issues surrounding biotechnology. In this article, John Duca and Mine Yücel summarize the presentations made at the conference. Topics covered include funding, location, and legal issues confronting the biotech industry. The interdisciplinary nature of biotech research, along with recent advances and future applications, is also discussed.Biotechnology

Did speculation drive oil prices? futures market points to fundamentals

Oil market speculation became an especially popular topic when the price of crude tripled over 18 months to a record high $145 per barrel in July 2008. Of particular interest to many is whether speculators drove oil prices beyond what fundamentals would have otherwise justified. We explore this issue over two Economic Letters. In this article, we look for evidence in the futures market that would signal speculation primarily drove prices. In our companion Economic Letter, we examine the physical market.Supply and demand ; Inventories ; Macroeconomics

Oil prices and U.S. aggregate economic activity: a question of neutrality

Considerable research finds oil price shocks have had major effects on U.S. output and inflation. Several recent studies argue that the response of monetary policy-rather than the oil price shocks themselves-caused the fluctuations in economic activity. Stephen Brown and Mine Yucel show that an oil price increase will lead to a decline in real GDP and an increase in the price level that are of a similar magnitude if the federal funds rate is unconstrained-a finding consistent with the definition of monetary neutrality in which nominal GDP is constant. Brown and Yucel also find that holding the federal funds rate constant in the face of an oil price increase is an accommodative policy that boosts real GDP, the price level, and nominal GDP. In short, the monetary authority can use accommodative policy to cushion the negative effects of higher oil prices on real GDP, but at the expense of higher inflation.Power resources - Prices ; Gross domestic product ; Inflation (Finance)

Bad news from the oil patch: why the rig count is depressed

Power resources - Prices

The interest rate sensitivity of Texas industry

A key factor in forecasting a region's growth is anticipating how a region will respond to changes in national policy. One important way national policy affects a region is through real interest rates. Forecasting regional growth, therefore, requires good estimates of the interest rate sensitivity of regional industries. In this study, Lori Taylor and Mine Yucel use vector autoregression analysis to examine the relationship between changes in real short-term interest rates and changes in Texas industry employment. They find that while a few industries are moderately sensitive to interest rate movements, most Texas industries are insensitive to changes in real interest rates. Moreover, they find that Texas total nonagricultural employment is insensitive to changes in real interest rates. As such, their analysis suggests that real interest rate movements influence the composition of Texas employment rather than its level.Interest rates ; Texas